My original goal for my upcoming half-marathon (the Denver Half-Marathon), was to beat the PR I ran last year at the Boulder Backroads, which was 1:49:19. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m following the FIRST (Furman Institute of Running and Scientific Training) training plan, which has me trying to run my long runs, depending on the week, at my planned half-marathon pace plus 20 or 30 seconds. The problem? I haven’t even been close to these times for most of my runs, which has me wondering whether I need to adjust my time goal.
I have been doing weekly track workouts (except last week, because I was sick), so I have several recent 1 mile ‘race’ times. Over the past few weeks, these times average out about a 7:23, so I used that time when using the race prediction charts I found doing a quick internet search. Here’s what I found.
Running for Fitness’ calculator gave me these results:
The second - fifth columns represent predicted finish times based on various formulas (Age grading, VO2 max, Riegel, Cameron, and Purdy), the sixth column is an average of the formulas (except Purdy), and the seventh column is a predicted pace.
A calculator I found on the Copacabana Runners web site gave me this estimate:
The McMillan Running calculator gave this result:
As you can see, all but the most optimistic of these predictors shows that at my current level of fitness, I’m unlikely to get a PR. So, my plan is to adjust my goal to a more realistic 1:55. After the race, I’ll report back on which of these predictors came closest to my actual race results.
If you enjoyed this post, make sure you subscribe to my RSS feed!
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Hey - I’m on the FIRST plan, too! Well kind of… I’m having no problem with the long run paces but couldn’t handle the interval paces, so I’m using Fitzgerald’s BRAIN training program for the interval and tempo days and the FIRST plan for the long run (and I cross train, too, which is part of FIRST).
Good luck at the 1/2!
Thanks!
I like your idea of combining Fitzgerald’s Brain Training program and the FIRST program. I’m just now starting to read Brain Training for Runners - so far it seems like it’s got a lot of useful info.